SENTIMENTAL FAVES TO DOMINATE OSCAR 2016

The ‘sentimental narrative’ is being bandied about with shameless abandon in most prognostications over the 2016 Academy Awards. Key categories are not being discussed on merit, but more so as if nominees are nearing death; those “Oh, it’s his time,” and “Wouldn’t it be fitting if…” kind of comments. SCREEN-SPACE can play that game as well as the best of them so, just over 24 hours out from host Chris Rock’s highly-anticipated opening monologue, here are our winners and why…

BEST PICTURE
Bridge of Spies is the best film amongst the eight nominees, but Spielberg was bumped from the director category and its Cold War setting (and, yes, Tom Hanks’ casting) makes it feel like a throwback to a bygone Hollywood era. Room will earn kudos elsewhere; The Martian and Brooklyn will have been shutout across the board by this time of the night. With no nomination in the script categories, it would go against the grain for The Revenant to pick up the trophy, but that is likely to happen. The upside is that the absence of Innaritu and co-writer Mark L Smith from the writing honours list means Spotlight and The Big Short won’t go home empty-handed. But could Mad Max Fury Road steal the Best Picture spotlight….?
Who will win: THE REVENANT.
Who should win: INSIDE OUT.

BEST DIRECTOR
…No, but the sentimental narrative will help its director George Miller to a surprise Best Director trophy. If the Academy rank-&-file are in a ‘body of work’ mindset, no one would be more deserving than the Aussie filmmaker; he has one trophy already, for Best Animated Film winner Happy Feet, and is high on the AMPAS membership radar after Babe (7 noms), The Witches of Eastwick (2 noms) and Lorenzo’s Oil (2 noms). Industry types know that the journey he undertook on the action franchise reboot was every bit as fraught with hardship as anything Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu and his team undertook on The Revenant. Adam McKay’s giddy, fresh vision for The Big Short could be the bolter; Tom McCarthy’s work on Spotlight was solid; Lenny Abrahamson for Room is this category’s ‘reward enough to be nominated’ guy.
Who will win: GEORGE MILLER for MAD MAX FURY ROAD (pictured, above; on-set with star Tom Hardy)
Who should win: GEORGE MILLER for MAD MAX FURY ROAD

BEST ACTRESS
45 Years star Charlotte Rampling had the sentimentalists on her side until she laid into the Academy over the diversity issue. Jennifer Lawrence’s industry pull and not her performance in Joy got her a spot on the ballot, but she’s doing no campaigning for the prize. It’s a matter of ‘when’ not ‘if’ for Saoirse Ronan, but the current is running against her for Brooklyn. And the frontrunner a few months back, Cate Blanchett in Todd Haynes’ lesbian romantic drama Carol, has found no awards season favour come trophy time (Ed: fine with that, it’s a hammy performance). When the terrific Ms Larson is cradling the little gold guy back stage, will any of the pap gallery have the verve to call out, “Hey Brie, say ‘cheese’?”
Who will win: BRIE LARSON for ROOM.
Who should win: CHARLIZE THERON for MAD MAX FURY ROAD

BEST ACTOR
Just how the sentimental narrative surrounding Leonardo DiCaprio’s bare Oscar cabinet emerged is a mystery. He’s been “snubbed for this” and “denied for that” over the years, according to page after page of fawning editorial (in all fairness, he perhaps should have won for The Aviator…or Revolutionary Road…or The Wolf of Wolf Street). But his cause quickly became the catchcry of the modern American film industry, the shrill shrieking reminiscent of Oscar matriarch Shirley Maclaine’s “Give my daughter the stuff!” meltdown in Terms of Endearment. Fassbender is fantastic as Steve Jobs; the buzz on Eddie Redmayne in The Danish Girl was hotter than the technically proficient but chilly performance that finally emerged; Trumbo was undersen, so Cranston remained an outsider. Damon’s space dude from The Martian? Puh-leeze.
Who will win: LEONARDO DICAPRIO from THE REVENANT.
Who should win:  GEZA ROHRIG from SON OF SAUL.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
No one begrudges Rachel McAdams’ nod for her fine work in Spotlight but she didn’t have the big showy moment that usually gets noticed amongst support players. Rooney Mara is the warm heart and soul in the otherwise overpraised Carol, but it’s a lead performance, surely? Winslet has a Lead Actress statue (and 6 other noms), which should be enough to discount her in a close race. If the 2016 Oscars fully commit to the sentimental, industry veteran Jennifer Jason Leigh could win for The Hateful Eight. Likely, though, that Alicia Vikander will top off a breakthrough year with the crown for The Danish Girl (also essentially a lead performance). If the male winners seem steeped in gooey sentimentality, the actress categories seem to be looking to the future of the industry.
Who will win: ALICIA VIKANDER for THE DANISH GIRL (pictured, above)
Who should win: KRISTEN STEWART for CLOUDS OF SILS MARIA

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
No category pulses soloudly with a sentimental heartbeat as the Supporting Actor contest. Mark’s Ruffalo and Rylance (for Spotlight and Bridge of Spies, respectively) can feel hard done by; in any other year they would have been duking it out (pardon the boxing analogy, but it’s fitting). Christian Bale is in peak form at present; his role in The Big Short represents an actor mature enough to back his instincts and deliver. Tom Hardy had a great year and bad guys, such as the creep he played in The Revenant, often win this category. But does the potential for overflowing goodwill and a minutes-long standing ovation (if the broadcaster allows it) exist anywhere else in the Oscar schedule than with the feting of Sylvester Stallone? No, it doesn’t and he will win and win big.
Who will win: SYLVESTER STALLONE for CREED
Who should win: Well, take your pick – JACOB TREMBLAY for ROOM; PAUL DANO for LOVE & MERCY; MICHAEL SHANNON for 99 ROOMS.

OF THE REST…
As stated, Adapted Screenplay honours will go to Adam McKay and Charles Randolph for The Big Short, while Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer will win Original Screenplay honours for Spotlight (both earned WGA gongs); Emmanuel Lubezki will win for lensing The Revenant, though John Seale could take this slot if the night turns in Fury Road’s favour; Mad Max will sweep the tech categories, including Editing, Makeup/Hair Styling, Production Design and the Sound categories; Inside Out is a cert for Animated Film; harrowing Holocaust drama Son of Saul for Foreign Film; the sentimental favourite for Original Score will be the legendary Ennio Morricone for The Hateful Eight, earning him his first Oscar; box office dominance will be rewarded with a VFX win for Star Wars The Force Awakens; doco honours for Amy; costuming to Sandy Powell for Cinderella; remarkably, the years forgotten hit Fifty Shades of Grey will earn Oscar bragging rights with a  Best Song win, for ‘Earned It’ by The Weeknd.

"AND THE OSCAR GOES TO...": PREDICTING THE 2015 WINNERS.

Call us a little bit cynical, but the modern Oscars circus is little more than an extension of the studio marketing arms. Each year, the bestowed-upon contenders are probably not the ‘best’ movies of the year, but certainly are the ones that serve the image and integrity of Hollywood’s corporate masters most succinctly. That said, the Oscars are still a blast, not least for us ‘industry analysis’ types. We indulge in long ruminations about who is going to win and why, as if we are privy to the back room dealings and long lunches that draw those left-field votes from the Academy members. We aren’t that inside, of course, but that never stops us from conjuring wildly hypothetical scenarios to support our prognostications. To wit, the 2015 SCREEN-SPACE Oscar Predictions… 

BEST ACTRESS:
Julianne Moore will take home this statue. It is impossible to recall when a category seemed like such a lock and will present the defining moment of the entire evening if she misses out (see also, J.K. Simmons and Patricia Arquette in the supporting player categories). On merit alone, it should be a much closer contest - Marion Cotillard gives the performance of the year in Two Days One Night, but no one saw it; Reese Witherspoon hit a new career-high in Wild; Felicity Jones was the Tom Cruise to Eddie Redmayne’s ‘Rainman’ and deserves any acting kudos far more than her co-star. Gone Girl’s Rosamund Pike’s inclusion at the expense of Jenny Slate (Obvious Child), Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year; Miss Julie), Jennifer Aniston (Cake) or Essie Davis (The Babadook) now seems daft. 

BEST ACTOR:
Like Moore, sentimental favourite Michael Keaton seemed a similar ‘sure thing’ a few months back. But the race has tightened. American Sniper’s enormous success has seen Bradley Cooper surge; with no Best Director nomination and the adapted screenplay sparking credibility debates, this category may be the only opportunity to reward the surprise hit. Redmayne’s impersonation of Stephen Hawking pales next to the likes of Daniel Day Lewis (who won for My Left Foot) and Tom Cruise (nominated for Born on The Fourth of July), but he has the BAFTA and SAG trophies already in his cabinet. No Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel) or Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler) undermines this category, for sure. Hollywood will reward it’s own and give Keaton the gong. 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY and BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Pundits will get some idea if The Grand Budapest Hotel is going to contend for a Best Picture win if it bumps Boyhood and Birdman in the Original Screenplay category. It will have certainly picked up some below-the-line honours by this stage, but will need this nod to maintain momentum; the recent BAFTA crown is a good sign. Foxcatcher is firming as the evening’s also-ran; Nigtcrawler should win, but won’t. Wes Anderson by a hipster’s whisker.
Adapted Screenplay is most likely the last big category The Imitation Game can win, but that seems unlikely against American Sniper and The Theory of Everything. Inherent Vice is (fittingly) the rank outsider; would’ve been nice to see James Gunn’s smart, sweet reworking of the comic book source Guardians of the Galaxy get recognition here. The 2015 surprise may be Damien Chazelle (pictured, left) taking the gold for Whiplash. With five nominations, the film has a lot of love amongst AMPAS members; JK Simmons didn’t just make up those vicious, tyrannical rants. Whiplash in an upset. 

BEST DIRECTOR
Morten Tyldum’s understated, workmanlike job on The Imitation Game was fine, but not one of the year’s five best. Foxcatcher auteur Bennet Miller’s rigid, austere eye was much admired, but did anyone come out of that film exclaiming, “God, I loved it”? Wes Anderson will be rewarded with the Original Screenplay gong. That leaves arguably the night’s toughest split decision – Alejandro Inarritu’s giddy, bewildering, technically dazzling spin on the artist-as-a-tortured-soul, or Richard Linklater’s warm celebration of every-home Americana. For its widely publicised production schedule and his intensely personal conviction, Linklater will probably claim it. No, I’m not that enamoured with the meandering mediocrity of Boyhood or its mopey leading man, but everyone else seems to love it and Linklater has certainly paid his dues, so good luck to him. 

BEST FILM:
In such a tight year, it is inconceivable that any kind of ‘clean sweep’ will emerge. If Boyhood wins here, it will have three of the top slots (Director, Supporting Actress). Boyhood won’t be ‘that’ film. If Redmayne surprises in the Best Actor category, Linklater takes the directing honours and The Grand Budapest Hotel nabs tech awards, the highly-touted pre-ceremony frontrunner Birdman may be shutout. Frankly, I can’t see that happening. Both the critics and the creative community adored Inarritu’s vision; that warmth will carry it to Best Picture glory in one of the tightest races in recent memory.

For what it’s worth…
Ida for Best Foreign Film; Big Hero 6 for Animated Feature; CitizenFour for Doco, and; ‘Glory’ from Selma for Best Song.