Call us a little bit cynical, but the modern Oscars circus is little more than an extension of the studio marketing arms. Each year, the bestowed-upon contenders are probably not the ‘best’ movies of the year, but certainly are the ones that serve the image and integrity of Hollywood’s corporate masters most succinctly. That said, the Oscars are still a blast, not least for us ‘industry analysis’ types. We indulge in long ruminations about who is going to win and why, as if we are privy to the back room dealings and long lunches that draw those left-field votes from the Academy members. We aren’t that inside, of course, but that never stops us from conjuring wildly hypothetical scenarios to support our prognostications. To wit, the 2015 SCREEN-SPACE Oscar Predictions…
BEST ACTRESS:
Julianne Moore will take home this statue. It is impossible to recall when a category seemed like such a lock and will present the defining moment of the entire evening if she misses out (see also, J.K. Simmons and Patricia Arquette in the supporting player categories). On merit alone, it should be a much closer contest - Marion Cotillard gives the performance of the year in Two Days One Night, but no one saw it; Reese Witherspoon hit a new career-high in Wild; Felicity Jones was the Tom Cruise to Eddie Redmayne’s ‘Rainman’ and deserves any acting kudos far more than her co-star. Gone Girl’s Rosamund Pike’s inclusion at the expense of Jenny Slate (Obvious Child), Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year; Miss Julie), Jennifer Aniston (Cake) or Essie Davis (The Babadook) now seems daft.
BEST ACTOR:
Like Moore, sentimental favourite Michael Keaton seemed a similar ‘sure thing’ a few months back. But the race has tightened. American Sniper’s enormous success has seen Bradley Cooper surge; with no Best Director nomination and the adapted screenplay sparking credibility debates, this category may be the only opportunity to reward the surprise hit. Redmayne’s impersonation of Stephen Hawking pales next to the likes of Daniel Day Lewis (who won for My Left Foot) and Tom Cruise (nominated for Born on The Fourth of July), but he has the BAFTA and SAG trophies already in his cabinet. No Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel) or Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler) undermines this category, for sure. Hollywood will reward it’s own and give Keaton the gong.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY and BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Pundits will get some idea if The Grand Budapest Hotel is going to contend for a Best Picture win if it bumps Boyhood and Birdman in the Original Screenplay category. It will have certainly picked up some below-the-line honours by this stage, but will need this nod to maintain momentum; the recent BAFTA crown is a good sign. Foxcatcher is firming as the evening’s also-ran; Nigtcrawler should win, but won’t. Wes Anderson by a hipster’s whisker.
Adapted Screenplay is most likely the last big category The Imitation Game can win, but that seems unlikely against American Sniper and The Theory of Everything. Inherent Vice is (fittingly) the rank outsider; would’ve been nice to see James Gunn’s smart, sweet reworking of the comic book source Guardians of the Galaxy get recognition here. The 2015 surprise may be Damien Chazelle (pictured, left) taking the gold for Whiplash. With five nominations, the film has a lot of love amongst AMPAS members; JK Simmons didn’t just make up those vicious, tyrannical rants. Whiplash in an upset.
BEST DIRECTOR
Morten Tyldum’s understated, workmanlike job on The Imitation Game was fine, but not one of the year’s five best. Foxcatcher auteur Bennet Miller’s rigid, austere eye was much admired, but did anyone come out of that film exclaiming, “God, I loved it”? Wes Anderson will be rewarded with the Original Screenplay gong. That leaves arguably the night’s toughest split decision – Alejandro Inarritu’s giddy, bewildering, technically dazzling spin on the artist-as-a-tortured-soul, or Richard Linklater’s warm celebration of every-home Americana. For its widely publicised production schedule and his intensely personal conviction, Linklater will probably claim it. No, I’m not that enamoured with the meandering mediocrity of Boyhood or its mopey leading man, but everyone else seems to love it and Linklater has certainly paid his dues, so good luck to him.
BEST FILM:
In such a tight year, it is inconceivable that any kind of ‘clean sweep’ will emerge. If Boyhood wins here, it will have three of the top slots (Director, Supporting Actress). Boyhood won’t be ‘that’ film. If Redmayne surprises in the Best Actor category, Linklater takes the directing honours and The Grand Budapest Hotel nabs tech awards, the highly-touted pre-ceremony frontrunner Birdman may be shutout. Frankly, I can’t see that happening. Both the critics and the creative community adored Inarritu’s vision; that warmth will carry it to Best Picture glory in one of the tightest races in recent memory.
For what it’s worth…
Ida for Best Foreign Film; Big Hero 6 for Animated Feature; CitizenFour for Doco, and; ‘Glory’ from Selma for Best Song.